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Crime Mapping and Spatial Analysis

A Methodology for Evaluating Geographic Profiling Software

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1. Introduction

This report describes a methodology for evaluating geographic profiling software. Following a brief overview of geographic profiling (Section 1.1), Section 1.2 describes how the methodology was developed. The key component of the methodology was convening an expert panel that met in August 2004; a summary and full transcript of the panel’s discussions are in Section 2 and the Appendix, respectively. The panel focused on four geographic profiling software applications, which are described in Section 3. The actual evaluation methodology is outlined in Section 4.

1.1. Background on Geographic Profiling

Geographic profiling is a criminal investigative technique that attempts to provide information on the likely “base of operations” of offenders thought to be committing serial crimes. The base of operations could be the offender’s home, place of employment, a friend house, or some other frequented location. The predictions are based on the locations of these crimes, other geographic information about the case and the suspect, and certain assumptions

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Revisiting the Spatial Analysis of Crime in National Forests

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We examined spatial patterns of crime incidents in national forests covering 112,396 km in the northwestern United States. In this study we analyzed a database containing 40,003 spatially referenced crime incidents representing felonies, infractions, and misdemeanors during 2 calendar years (2003–2004) at several geographic scales. We applied several geospatial analytical techniques including quadrat analysis, nearest neighbor analysis (NNA), and nearest neighbor hierarchical (NNH) clustering to investigate crime incident spatial patterning. These geospatial tools were beneficial in identifying crime incident relationships contained within a large, complex spatial database. NNH clustering identified 15 regional clusters with 16,138 crime incidents, focused in the central portion of Oregon’s national forests, specifically in the Deschutes, Mount Hood, and Willamette National Forests. Subsequent NNA tests confirmed spatial patterning in all three forests. Closer examination of a confirmed hot spot in one forest revealed a recreation corridor with adjacent recreation destination amenities and a large proximate metropolitan area, a combination of circumstances not apparent at the initial regional analysis scale. Other spatial...

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Crime Mapping and Spatial Analysis in National Forests

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We examined the spatial distribution of crime incidents on USDA Forest Service lands using a geographic information system and several spatial analysis techniques. Our primary objective was to examine whether patterns existed in the spatial distribution of crime and to explore the relationship of patterns to other geographic features using the Forest Service and other databases. We analyzed a database containing over 45,000 spatially referenced crimes such as felonies, infractions, and misdemeanors. Other spatial data layers included transportation networks, administrative boundaries, hydrology, elevation, and digital orthophotographs. Results at a regional scale showed crime densities concentrated in forests adjacent to population centers and transportation corridors. Nearest neighbor, quartic kernel density estimation, and quadrat analyses identified crime patterning and hot spots. Our results suggest that managers can use these spatial techniques as decision support tools to better understand the relationship between natural resources and crime.

Crime mapping has occurred for over 100 years but it is only recently that geographic information systems (GIS) have begun to...

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