Fundamentals of Probability and Statistical Evidence in Criminal Proceedings
Introduction to Communicating and Interpreting Statistical Evidence in the Administration of Criminal Justice
0.1 Context, Motivation and Objectives
Statistical evidence and probabilistic reasoning today play an important and expanding role in criminal investigations, prosecutions and trials, not least in relation to forensic scientific evidence (including DNA) produced by expert witnesses. It is vital that everybody involved in criminal adjudication is able to comprehend and deal with probability and statistics appropriately. There is a long history and ample recent experience of misunderstandings relating to statistical information and probabilities which have contributed towards serious miscarriages of justice.
0.2 English and Scottish criminal adjudication is strongly wedded to the principle of lay factfinding by juries and magistrates employing their ordinary common sense reasoning. Notwithstanding the unquestionable merits of lay involvement in criminal trials, it cannot be assumed that jurors or lay magistrates will have been equipped by their general education to cope with the forensic demands of statistics or probabilistic reasoning.