Research Varities

ABSTRACT

Any scholar attempting to trace historic trends in homicide must grapple with the issue of missing data, some of which are yet to be uncovered, but others of which have disappeared forever. This paper shows the utility of multi-source “capture-recapture” (or “dual enumeration”) methods for estimating the number of unrecorded murders, using newspaper and archives data for the state of South Carolina, 1877-1878. Results are dramatic. In comparison with the capture-recapture estimate of total homicides, at least 58% of the state’s murders for the 2 years are not to be found in the South Carolina State Department of Archives and History; the major newspaper of the state missed at least 30%; and the combined sources missed at least 20%. Clearly, any historical trend study based on the 2 sources alone would face a formidable under count problem. The 19th century Southern culture and social structure, and the ruralness of the state,...