Tradecraft

THE “MIND-SET” CHALLENGE

Using the analytic techniques contained in this primer will assist analysts in dealing with the perennial problems of intelligence: the complexity of international developments, incomplete and ambiguous information, and the inherent limitations of the human mind. Understanding the intentions and capabilities of adversaries and other foreign actors is challenging, especially when either or both are concealed. Moreover, transnational threats today pose even greater complexity, in that they involve multiple actors including nonstate entities that can adapt and transform themselves faster than those who seek to monitor and contain them. Finally, globalization has increased the diversity of outcomes when complex, interactive systems such as financial flows, regional economies or the international system as a whole are in flux. The first hurdle for analysts is identifying the relevant and diagnostic information from the increasing volume is acquired through open source and clandestine means. Analysts must also pierce the shroud of secrecy and sometimes mdeception that state and nonstate actors use to mislead. A systematic approach that considers a range of alternative