Rhetoric vs Reality

INTRODUCTION

Arguably, the most fundamental question underpinning criminal profiling is whether the technique actually works, or more specifically, whether the predictions of profilers in describing the characteristics of an unknown offender are accurate. Despite the seemingly obvious nature of this question, rigorous empirical data to answer it has been in short supply. This observation, however, should not be interpreted as implying that the development of criminal profiling has occurred within a total vacuum. On the contrary, much material in the form of anecdotal accounts attesting to the merits of criminal profiles has been promulgated in support of their accuracy. Unfortunately, these anecdotal examples seldom appear in publications that are subject to the rigors of independent scientific review. Instead, they frequently originate from true crime novels often co-authored by retired profilers (1–3). Furthermore, although such anecdotal examples may illustrate the application of a criminal profile, the various studies...