How you can tell if the Simulations in Computational Criminology are any Good
Abstract
Computational criminology applies computer simulations to study topics of interest for criminologists. Just as for all computer modelling in science, the validity of the simulations ultimately depends on whether they are able to reproduce empirical phenomena with sufficient accuracy. The only way in which this can be determined is by comparing model output to real observations. This paper provides an overview of how such model evaluations can be undertaken.
Introduction
For well over a generation, complex computer simulation models have been important tools in the natural and social sciences. Such models can be broadly viewed as vehicles for studying complexity and emergent phenomena (Vicek 2000), and their applications are remarkably diverse. Models of climate change (Randall 2000) are perhaps the most visible illustration in the natural sciences. The functioning and growth of markets (Kirman and Vriend 2001; Tesfatsion 2002) is the archetype in economics. The impact of violence and revenge in primitive societies (Younger 2005) is an instructive instance from anthropology.